In practice, Thailand may be neutral in the regions great power fissures into the next decade. The security assurances provided by the U.S. military presence coupled with the advent of regional institutions, notably ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank, nurtured that growth. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. From a strategic perspective, the geographical significance of the SCS is that whoever has dominance over it, dominates the future of East Asia. By the end of the 1970s, communist insurgencies outside Indochina had been effectively suppressed. Not only Vietnam is the strongest opponent of the Chinese nine-dash line claim in the region, Vietnam's sustained economic growth has pushed it to emerge as an important player in the South East Asia, which China perceives is not in its interests. Japan and South Korea will face a perilous new reality with China in control of the seaborne lifeline of both countries. In addition, the United States has affirmed some responsibility for the defense of Taiwan and has close security ties with Singapore and New Zealand. Report Recent satellite analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Chinese fishing fleets are engaged in paramilitary work on behalf of the state rather than the commercial enterprise of fishing, the organization reported. Almost all the East Asian countries are dependent on this sea. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. The United States emerged from World War II as a resident great power in East Asia. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. Chinas significant increase in spending and capability of its maritime forces is of note. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. Tackling these issues will be tricky for the United States, as many of the elites that benefit from corruption will be those with whom Washington must work to deepen ties, but this is a long-term effort worth pursuing. Final Thoughts & Looking Towards the Future. director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair; Dr. Zack Cooper, Fellow, Japan Chair; Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project; Andrew Shearer, Senior Adviser on Asia-Pacific Security; and Greg Poling, Director Asia Maritime Transparency Initiativeto provide the analytical context and some fundamental principles that should guide strategic thinking on South China Sea policy. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea. Cooperation on areas of shared interest is important not only to the United States, but also to China. U.S. access to the South China Sea is coming under increasing threat as Chinese power increases, but can be preserved if the United States maintains a sufficient military advantage over China. The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. The refusal, likely prompted by Beijing, might seem to be just another way for China to put pressure on Taiwan, which it has long regarded as a renegade province. However, Brunei's insistence that specific issues in the maritime region should be . With the National League for Democracy now in power in Naypyidaw, China cannot rely on Burma as an automatic ally. Inconsistent messaging and policiesincluding on freedom of navigation and routine presence operationshave also led to confusion in the region. In a context of great power competition, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. Select Accept to consent or Reject to decline non-essential cookies for this use. The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. The United States can do more to leverage its alliances in Asia to raise the costs of Chinese efforts to undermine the regional order. In 1989 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army entered Tiananmen Square and terminated the student-led democracy demonstrations and hundreds died. The neighboring South East Asian countries of the highly volatile and busiest waterways of the South China Sea (SCS) have overlapping claims of sovereignty. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. China has adopted an increasingly assertive posture towards its own claims by elevating it to a core interest, strengthening its fishery law enforcement and building civilian and military facilities in the disputed islands and waters. The South China Sea is a core interest of both Vietnam and China. Strategic. China's strategic reach into the South China Sea has obvious and profound implications for three sets of international actors: (1) the littoral Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines); (2) major maritime countries heavily dependent on the sea lanes through the South China Sea (including Japan, Korea, and But if China continues to play its cards wrong and if the United States proves itself a dependable partner, American warships could one day regularly operate out of Cam Ranh Bay, the strategically located port-of-call, for the first time since the Vietnam War. These straws-in-the-wind gained strategic context because the PRC had long published official maps showing a boundary encompassing almost the entire South China Sea the nine-dash line.. U.S. interests in the South China Sea fall into three broad categories including: (1) Economic interests tied to the sea-lanes; (2) Defense ties with allies and other security partners; and (3) Implications for the global balance of power and influence. China has constructed more than 3,000 acres of artificial islands, and although this is not illegal, it is an intimidating display of wealth and power. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. Besides, more than half of the world's fishing vessels pass through the SCS. The post-war regional order. China, of course, has important strengths in Burma. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. Other claimant states welcome U.S. involvement precisely because Washington does not favor one claimants territorial ambitions over those of the others. America has formal defense/security alliances with five Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compassespecially when combined with regional states advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investmentwould enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015. But addressing the risks of its near seas means tackling the time-consuming and costly project of building, training and deploying a stronger blue-water navy while also establishing a greater . Abstract. The United States has formally objected to Chinas South China Sea maritime claims. The United States has an interest in seeing that these partners maintain their strategic autonomy, but capacity building efforts to help them resist coercion are not keeping pace with Chinas growing capabilities. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. Notably, the paper identified Malaysia's maritime claims in the South China Sea as its top security concern. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. Washingtons relationship with Hanoi will make that more palatable. The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. South China Sea has geo-strategic, geo-politic and geo-economic importance due to half of the world trade passage and presence of precious resources of oil and gas. In particular, shifting explanations for how the United States will manage Chinas rising power and influencealong with the military-heavy implementation of the rebalancehave exacerbated suspicions that Washington seeks to contain Beijings rise. economic importance associated with the ocean is tremendous and manifold. The United States has several enduring advantages that make regional states continue to seek it out as the security partner of choice, including the worlds best military, high favorability ratings in most local populations, and a less threatening foreign policy than that of China. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), it carries one-third of global shipping, carrying trillions of dollars in trade, making it a significant geopolitical water body. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the worlds busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries, but tension has steadily increased in recent years. The most likely single scenario for a major military engagement against a great power adversary would be one against China centered on the South China Sea. For example, targeted sanctions on Chinese companies involved in destabilizing activities could be considered. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. 2016 The Arbitration Tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. Washington (United States of America), February 27 (ANI): A Chinese J-11 fighter jet armed with air-to-air missiles intercepted the US Navy reconnaissance jet over the South China Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. Unfortunately, the allies now lack a shared strategic outlook, thus reducing the impetus to overcome recent bilateral political hurdles. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. How that competition will evolve remains to be seen, but the very fact of the contest should be understood as a reversal of fortune for China. Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. Talks are focused on articles that are relevant to disaster relief, but the agreements eventual parameters could expand as the U.S.-Vietnam security relationship matures. Chinas military modernization has included structural reforms establishing a Joint Operations Command and five new theatre commands (Northern, Eastern, Southern, Western and Central). By the mid-1990s, relations with Vietnam had begun a rapidly improvement. The United States and its Pacific allies should consider whether it is feasible and sensible to coordinate the activities of USAID, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), and Australias Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. The Thai people are lurching towards a new political arrangement, a process that Thais have to see through for themselves. The longstanding U.S. position that it takes no position on sovereignty disputes over land features in the South China Sea, while insisting that these disputes be resolved in a peaceful fashion and in accordance with international law, is sound and should be maintained. Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. President Musharraf requested China to invest in this important strategic chokepoint in the Indian Ocean., to which China agreed. the South China Sea that would be " - S " ["permitting a leaf to obscure one's view of the mountain"]. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. South China Sea is a strategic sea lane is significance for connectivity, navigation, trade and resources is a global hotspot as a potential flashpoint. Peace Corps celebrates spirit of volunteerism, A distinctive sign language thrives among Black Americans, U.S. rescuers stand ready to find earthquake survivors, People across U.S. rush to aid Trkiye, Syria, Blinken pledges continued U.S. support for Trkiye, Syria, Meet the U.S. search teams who helped save lives in Trkiye, Fighting tropical diseases in the Pacific Islands, U.S. partners assist the Syrian people after earthquake, U.S. welcomes Indian students in record numbers, Indian American CEOs exemplify countries shared ambitions, The latest medical gadgets at U.S. tech show, Helping women in Vietnam become academic leaders, Ukraine: Before and after February 24, 2022, Russias re-education camps hold thousands of Ukraines children, report says. The U.S.-Thai relationship has suffered since the 2006 coup that overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra and especially since the latest coup, which saw the military take control in 2014 and stubbornly cling to power. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. This geo strategic significance is the main reason behind the fact that China and other territorial stakeholders are contesting to gain control of these maritime lane. Current developments in the South China Sea must be understood against the backdrop of recent history. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is an international treaty that sets out importantmaritime rules. The annual Cobra Gold exercise is Asias largest multilateral military exercise. China is working hard to bring under its control the water, islands, rocks and reefs that sit within its imaginary nine-dash line. Center for Strategic and International Studies Thailand has little reason to jettison the alliance, but in the near term the United States may need to accept more distant ties and a closer Thai-Chinese relationship. U.S. access to the military facilities on the South China Seas southern flank, however, would shift the regions balance of power in Americas favor. Shortly after the ARF concluded, an official spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry asserted Chinas indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). Pexels India-China Indo-Pacific South China Sea Signalling is important international relations. Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. Sun Tzu Explains China's Shaping Operations in the South China Sea. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. U.S. goals to uphold regional alliances and partnerships, defend international rules and norms, and maintain a productive relationship with China remain valid. Countering Chinas efforts has become a key test of perceived U.S. commitment to many in the region. 1982 More than 160 nations conclude the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, an international treaty setting out the framework governing the oceans and their uses. The end of the Cold War found East Asia and the Western Pacific strategically quiescent. Improved governance will lead to stronger economies over the long term and dampen the influence of Chinese dirty money. It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. Meanwhile, Japan is providing ten new multi-role vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard; Manila is also interested in procuring used P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Tokyo. The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. In sum, the United States has built and maintained a dense network of security links and obligations throughout East and Southeast Asia all sustained by regular contact with the Seventh Fleet as it transits the region via the South China Sea. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. Southeast Asians do not want to and should not have to choose between the two, but Chinese behavior is moving some states to pick sidesor at least to lean in one direction or another. A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. More and more, we see a particularly aggressive maritime stance from China towards NATO warships when exercising freedom of navigation through the SCS. Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. Chinas claims over the legal status and maritime rights of the 9 dash line remain ambiguous and outside of UN recognised EEZ claims. You are approaching Chinese airspace. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. Successful capacity building efforts will allow Southeast Asian states to better help themselves, bolstering deterrence against low-level Chinese coercion and allowing the U.S. military to focus more on deterring high-level contingencies. With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. Such access would complement the renewed U.S. presence in the Philippines; facilitate a regular American presence in the western part of the South China Sea; enable the United States to more easily defendor seal upthe Malacca Strait; and, it should be noted, put American forces within striking distance of major Chinese bases on Hainan, including port facilities that host Chinas ballistic missile submarines. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? Aung San Suu Kyi has no interest in antagonizing Chinawhich shares a border with Burma and is a major source of foreign investmentbut nor can she afford to alienate the United States or India. Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). Since 2009, China has growingly asserted its influence over the SCS by enforcing an annual fishing ban, conducting regular maritime patrols, undertaking scientific surveys and conducting military exercises in the disputed islands and waters. Walter Lohman hasdescribedCobra Gold as an achievement that has proved useful for military missions, such as joint patrols of vital sea lanes, and noncombat missions, such as disaster relief following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma.. Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a strategy . The Tribunal rejects Chinas maritime claims that go beyond the entitlements set out in the Law of the Sea Convention. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Thursday, Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the marginal sea is key to China's security. The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. Islands in the South China Sea The islands of the South China Sea can be grouped into two island chains. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. In such a complex environment, it is important to have well-established, recognizable rules of international law. Networking Social Entrepreneurship in Southeast Asia: Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) program, The High Price of Neglecting Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Environmental Change and Security Program, North Korea International Documentation Project, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, The Middle East and North Africa Workforce Development Initiative, Science and Technology Innovation Program, Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition. It will always have an eye on the need to protect itself against attack from the sea, but there's much more to China's vulnerability than potential invasion or bombardment.
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